Jean-Noel Ferrie, head of Egypt research specialist at the CNRS into perspective the magnitude of anti-Mubarak demonstrations that took place Tuesday, January 25th in the country. He said he would be "very surprising" that the Egyptian president knows the same fate as his former Tunisian counterpart, Ben Ali.
Mobilization was unprecedented number for such circumstances (ask for the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak). But the movements of 1977 were much larger and mobilizations on other subjects, such as Palestine, are also very strong. On the scale of the entire Egyptian population, events of Tuesday are low.
That 15 to 20 000 people took to the streets of a city of 14 million people is above all symbolic. This is not so new. There are still a few years, the Kifaya ("enough" in Arabic) arrived to gather several hundred people to demand the departure of Mubarak. Moreover, it is not very surprising that in an authoritarian regime with a number of social problems there is demonstrations against the head of state.
In democratic countries, we easily find 15 000 people to demand the resignation of the government. In my opinion, these events did not mark a break with the regime. But nobody let go Mubarak! Tunisia is a small country, where for the moment the people who replace Ben Ali are from the former power.
There is no real change of regime. In Egypt, Mubarak would mean the collapse of the collapse of the entire system. In this country, the government and senior management have the impression of working for the interest of Egypt and not for the head of state, as in Tunisia. And military support Mubarak.
Moreover, if the whole regime is a grave problem for the country, for the region and for the allies of Egypt. The situation is no comparison with Tunisia. Mubarak is not really a dictator is an authoritarian leader. He governs in a state that is highly institutionalized. Mubarak's entourage is made up of predators and profiteers like Ben Ali.
Furthermore, Mubarak is from the army, with whom he still maintains strong ties. A fall of Mubarak would be extremely surprising. Trade unions are controlled by the government and do not support the protesters. Even the opposition political parties show moderate support. It is therefore unlikely that the protestors come to unleash a massive mobilization of the Egyptians about their claims.
The Muslim Brotherhood is very careful and know that the slightest misstep regime will have no problem to increase the punishment on them. Second, it is not certain that the Muslim Brotherhood have much sympathy for the protesters, who are primarily young Liberals. And thirdly, the Muslim Brotherhood movement believe that will not last.
For several years, probably under the influence of a liberal wing around Gamal Mubarak [the son of Hosni Mubarak, tipped to replace him in the head of Egypt], the suppression of protests has softened. But this does not mean that if the protests persist regime will not choose to revert to old ways.
It's very simple: if the plan is not capable of increasing repression in the events, it can have an effect of encouragement for new events. Interview by Jean-Baptiste Chastand 
Mobilization was unprecedented number for such circumstances (ask for the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak). But the movements of 1977 were much larger and mobilizations on other subjects, such as Palestine, are also very strong. On the scale of the entire Egyptian population, events of Tuesday are low.
That 15 to 20 000 people took to the streets of a city of 14 million people is above all symbolic. This is not so new. There are still a few years, the Kifaya ("enough" in Arabic) arrived to gather several hundred people to demand the departure of Mubarak. Moreover, it is not very surprising that in an authoritarian regime with a number of social problems there is demonstrations against the head of state.
In democratic countries, we easily find 15 000 people to demand the resignation of the government. In my opinion, these events did not mark a break with the regime. But nobody let go Mubarak! Tunisia is a small country, where for the moment the people who replace Ben Ali are from the former power.
There is no real change of regime. In Egypt, Mubarak would mean the collapse of the collapse of the entire system. In this country, the government and senior management have the impression of working for the interest of Egypt and not for the head of state, as in Tunisia. And military support Mubarak.
Moreover, if the whole regime is a grave problem for the country, for the region and for the allies of Egypt. The situation is no comparison with Tunisia. Mubarak is not really a dictator is an authoritarian leader. He governs in a state that is highly institutionalized. Mubarak's entourage is made up of predators and profiteers like Ben Ali.
Furthermore, Mubarak is from the army, with whom he still maintains strong ties. A fall of Mubarak would be extremely surprising. Trade unions are controlled by the government and do not support the protesters. Even the opposition political parties show moderate support. It is therefore unlikely that the protestors come to unleash a massive mobilization of the Egyptians about their claims.
The Muslim Brotherhood is very careful and know that the slightest misstep regime will have no problem to increase the punishment on them. Second, it is not certain that the Muslim Brotherhood have much sympathy for the protesters, who are primarily young Liberals. And thirdly, the Muslim Brotherhood movement believe that will not last.
For several years, probably under the influence of a liberal wing around Gamal Mubarak [the son of Hosni Mubarak, tipped to replace him in the head of Egypt], the suppression of protests has softened. But this does not mean that if the protests persist regime will not choose to revert to old ways.
It's very simple: if the plan is not capable of increasing repression in the events, it can have an effect of encouragement for new events. Interview by Jean-Baptiste Chastand
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