Monday, February 21, 2011

Who is Mubarak's successor in a democratic Egypt?

Mohamed ElBaradei known in the West is only an outsider. Great opportunities expected from Amr Mussa, Secretary General of the Arab League. And what role the icons will play the young revolutionary movement? It was the day before Mubarak's overthrow. Amr Mussa, secretary general of the Arab League could hardly conceal that he would like to be the next president of Egypt.


"When the call comes, and when it is clear, I am ready to serve the country, in what capacity whatsoever," said Amr Mussa. When asked whether he would take as president, he said: He does not know yet. Nor whether he would start their own political party. After Mubarak's overthrow, he was the reluctance fall quickly.

Only on Friday evening he announced that he would phase out his office at the Arab League in March. And on Monday he told the news channel al-Arabiya: Yes, he would become president. Amr Mussa has it all possible candidates the best opportunities. There is hardly an Egyptian politician who can compete in popularity and charisma with him.

A member of the younger generation, which Mubarak has driven away, he is with his 74 years did not. He is not a fresh face. He began as a career diplomat and served ten years as Foreign Minister Mubarak. In this position he gained a high reputation in the community and gave Egypt back the outside political influence.

Since 2001 he is Secretary General of the Arab League - an organization representing 22 states, and was mainly characterized by constant disagreement. Mussa was still popular, six years he has been once acted as a presidential candidate - but he did not want to forfeit with Mubarak. Like most members of the Egyptian elite, Mussa held in the weeks and days before the overthrow Mubarak's back with clear opinions.

The headquarters of the Arab League in Cairo is located right on Tahrir Square, has been demonstrated at 18 days, and there awaited from Mussa - behind its own army checkpoint, high walls and Tn, which are secured with chains. He was in all that time only twice in the square, he told Der Spiegel on the eve of Mubarak's overthrow.

Some shouted "We want you as president!" He was very proud of the young people, he said. But Mubarak's call for immediate withdrawal, he did not know. "Mubarak has already decided not to compete again," he said. "The sweep is the dawning of a transitional period. A wind of change through the Arab world." He was already focused on the future: "I want a profound democracy, not a superficial Not just a camera, a Wahlbox and someone to slip inside throws..

Because we need it, not because the West needs it. "The reluctance to Mubarak Mussas popularity has diminished in many demonstrators, they see him as representative of the old guard. But the majority of Egyptians, he enjoys respect. Although he always had close connections to the regime, to he was caught but nothing.

The probability is high that he is in the new Egypt play a leading role. In contrast to Mohamed ElBaradei, the former Secretary General of the International Atomic Energy Agency. enjoys in the West the highest reputation, is in Egypt itself but as an outsider, because he been out of the country lived.

Muslim brothers with limited potential for the post-Mubarak has just begun, and the new political landscape is forming just beginning, it is clear that the Muslim brothers will play an important role - the Islamist movement has more than one million members, is organized, it is one of the few opposition groups now represented in Parliament, and it has just announced plans to create a party afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood and their leader Mohammed Badia itself.

the West, but they played in the overthrow Mubarak is not decisive, and many experts consider their potential voters to be limited. In Mubarak's Egypt, the Brotherhood was the only strong opposition, she pulls from her credibility, and ultimately even they benefited from the system. Could in a real democracy with many parties, their influence decline at all? In the next few weeks, the Egyptian democracy kicks off come, it will form new alliances.

It could be a left-nationalist bloc with the followers of General Gamal Abd al-Nasser to give, which are now splintered into three parties. There might be a liberal block to the Alliance Kefaya and the traditional liberal nationalist Wafd Party. But their role and even the well-known opposition politicians will play is unclear.

They include Ayman Nour, Mubarak ordered the arrest of the 2005, or George Ishak, leader of the Liberal Alliance Kefaya. But they were not all that Mubarak fell. It was a politicized, highly cross-linked youth with their heads until the last few weeks have been reported. Will they also compete and run for political office? It's people like Ahmed Mahir, the youth movement of the sixth April, co-founded - or Ghonim Wael, who founded the group on Facebook "We are all Khaled Said", which played an important role at the beginning of the revolution.

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