NEW YORK - Some 47% of Americans believe that the passing of GDP between China and the United States has already occurred. The result of the authoritative annual survey Pew Research is revealing. In fact in the most optimistic projections, the Chinese economy will not reach the size of the first U.S.2018 (others refer to the historical attachment 2030). But perceptions count, and perceptions is the fact that G2, the Sino-American Summit which opens tomorrow night in Washington with a private dinner. The two masters of the world: like it or not Barack Obama and Hu Jintao, so they regard their public opinions, and other nations.
The vision of two masters, however controversial, making it perfectly the historical path that has changed the face of the world. This visit coincides with the fortieth anniversary of "ping pong diplomacy" when the two national table tennis were used in 1971 as an open-track for the first direct meeting between Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong in the following year: the China So poor was a giant, always threatened by famine, useful only to America as political and diplomatic counterweight to the Soviet Union.
To restore the previous state visit of Chinese President in Washington than tomorrow night, need to go back to 1997 with Jiang Zemin received from Bill Clinton, China was already in full modernization, but there were no fewer than four years when it joined the world trade, its impact was modest in globalization, and in that year had to defend itself from the contagion of the Asian financial crisis.
Today it seems even the distant 2006, when Hu Jintao was received (but not with the rank of the state visit) from George Bush. America pre-recession was much more confident. To the point of inflicting the guest out of sheer carelessness, different offenses of the Protocol: insufficient to maintain order at the press conference allowed a mini-protest of Falun Gong, then the national anthem was attributed to the Republic of China which is The official name of Taiwan.
Errors that the Obama Administration will not repeat certain: the Sino-American summit today is prepared with much greater care. Hu is a country that has broken through the $ 250 billion of annual trade surplus with the United States in December 2010. 21% of all foreign debts of U.S. Treasury are being held in Beijing, for a total of 850 billion.
It's Bank of China with 2.85 trillion in its coffers (most in dollar terms) has 25% of global foreign exchange reserves. The weight of the host it is measured by the fierce struggle that is being waged for a "seat at the table" in the White House state dinner. All chief executives of Wall Street banks are making frantic lobbying for weeks to be included among the VIPs who "watch the story." Hu for his part responded with a gesture "imperial" in first place on the guest list which belong to him, put the mayors of San Francisco and Oakland, the first two Sino-American to govern two U.S.
cities. The idea of the G2 is no longer that naive and good-natured charm that was given at the beginning of the Obama presidency, when the prevailing optimism of the will. Today, no one can see how realistic a "directory" two that solves all the problems facing the planet. The differences, interests and values, are too large.
This does not detract from the centrality of their relationship: when it is productive when it is conflict, when the stall is always the most important of all. The economy remains more robust dossier. On this ground the definition of the masters of the world is not exaggerated. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner provides that "in no more than ten years, China has overtaken Europe as the main trading partner of the United States." In Washington, the International Monetary Fund sees 2011 growth dominated by two engines: one is the ex-emerging countries including China has an undisputed leadership, on the other hand the United States as it moves towards a GDP growth twice Eurozone.
Geithner is pushing for a more substantial revaluation of the renminbi, the Chinese currency, which now enjoys a "sub-competitive pricing." He admits that Beijing has kept some of the promises: "In real terms, the renminbi was revalued by 10% per annum." The fears, however, Americans are moving elsewhere.
First on the systematic looting of intellectual property by the Chinese. Under the terms used by the Congressional investigation, "even the ministries of Beijing are used on a regular pirated software, stolen from U.S. computer companies without paying the copyright." Another chorus of complaints about the level of state subsidies granted by Beijing to its companies, distorting competition with foreigners.
The most striking cases concern the Green Economy is so dear to Obama. Major American companies are closing factories of solar photovoltaic panels on U.S. soil to relocate to China. In this case it is not the differential in labor cost (it is a hi-tech low-intensity labor) unbridgeable as the advantage offered by the generosity of public support in China.
The "Obama Doctrine" by the economic crisis is expected to come up with a balance between the two major economies: China to tap more consumption, reduce saving, import. " From the speed of this adjustment will depend on which America feels less cheated positioned in the current G2. Otherwise there is a risk that one of the masters of the world denouncing the contract, and try to force a revision of the rules of the game.
But the "accident" could also come from China: the bursting of a speculative bubble, an excess of inflation. For this Geithner avoid exacerbating tension: the status quo is much better than a shot in the dark. Hardening of tones in respect of two contributes more to push the reset of China.
The shock is the most recent discovery that the armed forces in Beijing have developed their "fighter-bomber invisible" code in the J-20, whose first test coincided with a provocative visit to Beijing by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Washington responded by Hillary Clinton with a tough call on human rights, "China's commitments to maintain, free of political dissidents and reform its political system, if it is to live up to its global responsibilities in the twenty-first century." The uniqueness of the summit on Wednesday, there is also this: it will be the first time a U.S.
president is forced to offer a state reception in honor of a foreign leader in prison that holds the Nobel Peace Prize (Liu Xiaobo). The theme that most captures the feeling of America on the eve of this G2 is another. The passing of which is more acute awareness is the measured ranking OECD Pisa-on learning in high schools around the world.
For the first time in history, Shanghai's high schools have won the absolute primacy. The American high schools came in 15th place in reading, the 23rd in science, mathematics in the 31st. "Who wins in school today, win the race's economic future," warns Obama. The challenge of the masters of the world, in the G2, it has also become the only race that matters, and the place where you measure who is doing the right choices for his future.
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