Tunisia: "domino effect or backfire?"

The Tunisian people have spoken and, significantly, the Arab people listen, "says the analyst Lamis Andoni on Al Jazeera, which sees the popular uprising that brought down Tunisian President Zine el Abidine Ben Ali a" warning all leaders, whether supported by international or regional powers, they are no longer immune to outbursts of popular anger.

"While the shock wave Tunisia began to spread to other countries the region, some bloggers were also quick to compare events in Tunisia in the fall of the Berlin Wall, says the Lebanese daily L'Orient-Le Jour. "ingredients found in Tunisia are also present elsewhere, "from Morocco to Algeria, Egypt to Jordan, whether unemployment, police repression or obstacles to democracy," said Amr Hamzawi, the Center for Middle East American Carnegie Foundation in L'Orient-Le Jour.

The regimes share more or less the same characteristics: "a policy sclerotic, corrupt elites and cultural emptiness" which prevents social renewal, also notes the Guardian. Thus, Bouazizi Mohammed, a young Tunisian who set himself on fire December 17, 2010, "is unfortunately not alone," laments and Gulf News.

"Millions are just waiting to become another Bouazizi in many Arab cities and towns, especially in the republics established in the Arab world post-colonial." In Algeria, where five people have already sacrificed by fire in three days, it could well become "the new mode of protest," analyseL'Expression, who sees the sign of "the extent of the disarray that has plagued the company" .

Inequality, widespread corruption, poverty and policy lock "the Algerian street rumbles and the risk of contagion is high, avertitEl Watan. "In the Middle East, concerns bore," said L'Orient-Le Jour, opposite the appeal of opposition movements to build on this popular uprising. In Egypt and Jordan, the opposition, led by a youth in revolt, was quick to be heard.

"We're next. Tunisians Listen: it's your turn, Egyptians," chanted the demonstrators took to the streets Friday night in the call including the Movement for Change, invigorated, reports the Los Angeles Times. In Jordan, the Islamic Action Front (IAF) held a sit-in with the Muslim Brotherhood, unions and leftist parties in Parliament to denounce the government's economic policy, calling it "all the Arab regimes to review their policies.

" Several Libyan cities were also the scene Sunday, reports Al Jazeera (in Arabic), demonstrations of citizens to demand the state government and respect for their rights. This wind of revolt, fueled by opposition parties, creates fear and caution among some commentators. The journalist Nadia Sakkafexprime and in the Yemen Times "mixed feelings" of the population in Yemen, saying itself driven by feelings of jealousy, fear and doubt in the wake of events in Tunisia.

"I'm jealous of the strength and unity of the Tunisian people," she says, expressing his doubts to see such solidarity and awareness in Yemen. The commentator al-Mishaal Gergawi goes further, in the daily Gulf News, and warns companies inspired by the revolt of Tunisia, like Algeria, Egypt and Yemen, that "the individual maturity is important for those who want democratic reforms and revolutions or changes of government are not necessarily the answer.

" "Domino or boomerang?" Asks columnist Nagib Aoun in L'Orient-Le Jour. "The fall of dictatorships in power would risk a long-does not result in a destabilizing power vacuum quickly filled by Islamic extremism, this scarecrow that never stop autocrats also not shake to justify the sustainability their schemes, whether in Syria or Egypt, the Gulf or North Africa? " he is concerned.

The return of media Rachid Ghannouchi, leader of the exiled Tunisian Islamist Nahda party ("Renaissance") has indeed aroused fears that the Islamists occupy public space. However, nothing can justify, "says Mustafa Hammouche, in a column in the daily Liberté Algeria, the" paradoxical convergence of discourse between the West, Arabs and Israel against "governments change, and which require us to choose between dictatorship or Islamism.

" Whether "the Tunisian case will spread or remain an isolated case" is still a challenge, says columnist George Sam'aan in the London daily Al Hayat Arabic. "The uprising was encouraged Tunisian opposition groups in the region, but the question is how these plans will they react? Will they descend heavily on the opposition or slowly open the political space to absorb the growing anger ? wondered Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center in Gulf News.

The situation leaves them a limited scope, analyzes the WSJ: "If they opt for repression, it will only feed the frustration of the people. But if they relax their grip, it smells a weakness and soon engulfed in the breach. " In Arab capitals, the time seems now to be cautious. The Egyptian government has made Sunday night a gesture towards the opposition, extending the period during which small parliamentary parties are authorized to submit a nomination for the presidential election, the next one scheduled in September 2011.

The success or otherwise of the Tunisian democratic transition is another highly anticipated sign of this dynamic. "The intifada has placed Tunisia the Arab world to a crossroads. If she manages to completely make a difference in Tunisia, it will open the door to freedom in the Arab world.

If she knows a setback, we should observe an unprecedented crackdown on leaders struggling to keep a grip on absolute power, "and warns analyst Lamis Andoni on Al Jazeera. Hassan al-Haifi and recalls in the Yemen Times that the Arab world has "seen this type of motion chess many times", particularly in Yemen in 1973, and this has often resulted in the strengthening or restoration of authoritarian regimes, mostly with the support of the oil barons in Saudi Arabia.

Helen Salon

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