REVOLUTION, transition, coup? Whatever the outcome of the chaos that was rampant last night in the streets of Cairo, it suddenly becomes clear: Egypt will never be the same. Since the nineteenth century Egypt is the laboratory of Arab history, Arab history that is going through a crucial transition, under the anxious gaze of a West unable to dramatically influence the direction of events.
In a tiny fraction of the time, four days, the uprising gave the rubbish bins Egyptian plans for a "republican monarchy" for which the despots of the area counted to hand the throne to a son, a brother. That solution seemed a destiny today is not even a possibility. So what? Yesterday, the future seemed shrouded in smoke given off by the fire that burned the palace of the party-state, the NPD.
Our son of Mubarak is still b.., .. Our son, as he said once the U.S. president. But it is less and less. Yesterday, the Clinton ordered him to stop the police and start "immediately" the transition to democracy. Washington calls for reform, to begin with, this seems to imply, that by the repeal of emergency laws, which he founded thirty years the state police Mubarak.
Mubarak can govern without the security services, their weaponry, their discretion brutal? Perhaps only one condition, if he could negotiate an agreement with the opposition. But it is weak, as has made a systematic repression. So who is able to ensure the streets of Egypt? Probably not even the fifteen old men who are at the top of the Muslim Brotherhood: long struggle to teach the virtue of patience even to the young executives of the organization.
However, if in the coming hours Mubarak managed to quell the riot, could then start the transition. And this is the western hope, even so secret. In the past the regime has never shown stretch marks when it came off riots. And Mubarak hopes to overcome this test was confirmed last night when he promised to replace the screens of TV ministers and pay heed to the protests, but will fight the chaos, the propagators of chaos, as enemies of the country.
But the uprising has already lasted four days, and yesterday, for the first time, pictures of the police have begun a dialogue with the protesters. Probably these alarming signals for him last night convinced Mubarak to send the army into the street, with the task of 'helping the police.
It 's a gamble. It shows weakness. Confirmation that the anti-riot units are no longer able to maintain control of the streets. And above all, gives the armed forces a role that could create formidable ambitions in general. In Tunisia the Army at first refused to defend Ben Ali, then attacked its police.
But Ben Ali was a former policeman. Mubarak comes from the staff, which in theory is integral. As supportive, however, will tell the next few hours. The scheme can only hope that the evidence shows that the soldiers do not back out, and officers agree to a neutrality that would be fatal to Mubarak.
The square is even less decipherable power in uniform. Yesterday, one Friday, a day of prayer, the crowd chanted the usual cry of Islamic Allah'u Akhbar, Allah is great. But the slogan of the revolt, the one that filled the streets, is another: 'Unlawful! '. Mubarak is an illegitimate president (because his election was a fraud).
The emergency law is unlawful. And this invocation of the rule of law against the state police does not have a characterization of Islam, nor does it contain any principled opposition to Western systems. So? If we should not forget what was the enthusiasm with which the foolish, the Shah fled, many European Vispe Terese hailed Khomeini was the liberator of the Iranians, nor can we continue to read what happens in Arab societies with the categories to which is attached to the Italian journalism, for which everything is reduced roughly to the religious dimension.
For example, we would understand more if we begin to think about the Egyptians that their Muslim faith is secondary to their political beliefs, as well as the history has formed. Reminds us that Reset, Egypt had a parliament four years before had Italy. For better or for worse, there is no Arab ideology that owes much to the Egyptian political thought in the last two centuries.
And this intense production of ideas is still reflected in a variety of positions. There are Nasserites Nasserites Orthodox and heretics, communists, trade union branch of the Labour Party, the Labour Muslim liberals ... and certainly there are Islamists, but also split into factions, and certainly much more complicated than they imagine them.
It 's the same geographical position that calls for efforts to understanding, interpretation and more refined tools. Like it or not, we are no longer in the backwater of history, there where we were finished at the end of the Cold War, and finally after stabilization of the Balkans. Suddenly we represent the new outpost of Europe, the center of a simmering Mediterranean, live across the Arab countries disrupted by radical changes, overlooking a Middle East in which peace could return dangerously poised and sucked into a scrum as generalized Israel as the region's oil.
There is enough because the Italian political bait by his stuttering and maybe the Minister of Foreign Affairs - instead of dealing with an apartment in Monaco - try to imitate the Quirinal, which in these circumstances has proved capable of producing ideas. 
In a tiny fraction of the time, four days, the uprising gave the rubbish bins Egyptian plans for a "republican monarchy" for which the despots of the area counted to hand the throne to a son, a brother. That solution seemed a destiny today is not even a possibility. So what? Yesterday, the future seemed shrouded in smoke given off by the fire that burned the palace of the party-state, the NPD.
Our son of Mubarak is still b.., .. Our son, as he said once the U.S. president. But it is less and less. Yesterday, the Clinton ordered him to stop the police and start "immediately" the transition to democracy. Washington calls for reform, to begin with, this seems to imply, that by the repeal of emergency laws, which he founded thirty years the state police Mubarak.
Mubarak can govern without the security services, their weaponry, their discretion brutal? Perhaps only one condition, if he could negotiate an agreement with the opposition. But it is weak, as has made a systematic repression. So who is able to ensure the streets of Egypt? Probably not even the fifteen old men who are at the top of the Muslim Brotherhood: long struggle to teach the virtue of patience even to the young executives of the organization.
However, if in the coming hours Mubarak managed to quell the riot, could then start the transition. And this is the western hope, even so secret. In the past the regime has never shown stretch marks when it came off riots. And Mubarak hopes to overcome this test was confirmed last night when he promised to replace the screens of TV ministers and pay heed to the protests, but will fight the chaos, the propagators of chaos, as enemies of the country.
But the uprising has already lasted four days, and yesterday, for the first time, pictures of the police have begun a dialogue with the protesters. Probably these alarming signals for him last night convinced Mubarak to send the army into the street, with the task of 'helping the police.
It 's a gamble. It shows weakness. Confirmation that the anti-riot units are no longer able to maintain control of the streets. And above all, gives the armed forces a role that could create formidable ambitions in general. In Tunisia the Army at first refused to defend Ben Ali, then attacked its police.
But Ben Ali was a former policeman. Mubarak comes from the staff, which in theory is integral. As supportive, however, will tell the next few hours. The scheme can only hope that the evidence shows that the soldiers do not back out, and officers agree to a neutrality that would be fatal to Mubarak.
The square is even less decipherable power in uniform. Yesterday, one Friday, a day of prayer, the crowd chanted the usual cry of Islamic Allah'u Akhbar, Allah is great. But the slogan of the revolt, the one that filled the streets, is another: 'Unlawful! '. Mubarak is an illegitimate president (because his election was a fraud).
The emergency law is unlawful. And this invocation of the rule of law against the state police does not have a characterization of Islam, nor does it contain any principled opposition to Western systems. So? If we should not forget what was the enthusiasm with which the foolish, the Shah fled, many European Vispe Terese hailed Khomeini was the liberator of the Iranians, nor can we continue to read what happens in Arab societies with the categories to which is attached to the Italian journalism, for which everything is reduced roughly to the religious dimension.
For example, we would understand more if we begin to think about the Egyptians that their Muslim faith is secondary to their political beliefs, as well as the history has formed. Reminds us that Reset, Egypt had a parliament four years before had Italy. For better or for worse, there is no Arab ideology that owes much to the Egyptian political thought in the last two centuries.
And this intense production of ideas is still reflected in a variety of positions. There are Nasserites Nasserites Orthodox and heretics, communists, trade union branch of the Labour Party, the Labour Muslim liberals ... and certainly there are Islamists, but also split into factions, and certainly much more complicated than they imagine them.
It 's the same geographical position that calls for efforts to understanding, interpretation and more refined tools. Like it or not, we are no longer in the backwater of history, there where we were finished at the end of the Cold War, and finally after stabilization of the Balkans. Suddenly we represent the new outpost of Europe, the center of a simmering Mediterranean, live across the Arab countries disrupted by radical changes, overlooking a Middle East in which peace could return dangerously poised and sucked into a scrum as generalized Israel as the region's oil.
There is enough because the Italian political bait by his stuttering and maybe the Minister of Foreign Affairs - instead of dealing with an apartment in Monaco - try to imitate the Quirinal, which in these circumstances has proved capable of producing ideas.
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