That Latin America faces the possibility of staging a great story of economic success in the coming years is already widely shared analysis. But among large countries Venezuela is in serious danger of losing the train. In the Caribbean Giant, "the deterioration of the productive and external debt dependence and reduce growth potential and increase the likelihood of new crises," according to a new economic study on the Latin American region by the advice Madrid Solchaga Recio & Associates It specializes in the latest report confirmed the view that 12 years of Chavez are about to put Venezuela on a point of no economic return.
Venezuela prospects for this year cast a stifling inflation of 28%, more than double the next largest country, Argentina (11.2%). In line with the forecasts of organizations like the UN ECLAC, the report ranks Venezuela as the only major Latin American country that ended 2010 in recession (GDP -1.9%) compared to growth of 6% on average in the region .
For this year, with consolidated economic recovery, the study said, Venezuela will grow by 1.4% compared to an average of 4.3% in Latin America. "The economic problem is the result of Venezuela's political crisis," said Jonah Fernandez, director of Research Department of Solchaga Recio & Associates.
"During the decade of Hugo Chavez has depressed domestic private investment and have gotten into a sort of Dutch disease in oil monoculture, a sector that" since it was nationalized and has become an instrument of government " adds. Besides, Fernandez explained that the Government of Hugo Chávez has maintained the currency appreciated, so "there is a substitution of domestic production by imports." The economy is sustained by high oil prices, says the expert, although governance has brought down the production and the lifeguard may not last long.
"I've spent years to amaze me every time I hold one more year," said Fernandez, who sees Venezuela in "a critical situation." Politically, the report concludes that "threatens to undermine democratic regression irreversibly the rule of law." The 2011 Latin American Perspectives study presents another side of the coin to look at Peru, which gives a growth of 8.7% in 2010, the highest of the major Latin American countries, and forecast to continue to lead this year with a 6.3%.
Exports to China are at the heart of the explanation of off Peru. Unlike Venezuela, the only study attributes these figures to political causes. In fact, as data provides reassurance that all candidates for the April elections "there is some convergence and sustained commitment" to economic matters.
However, the next government should strive to "fight poverty, inequality, corruption and advance the institutional strength," says the report. "It would be important to enhance the style Lula," says Fernandez, as figures of poverty in Peru do not come down "as expected" with such growth figures.
"If it brings more people into the growth process has a limit." 
Venezuela prospects for this year cast a stifling inflation of 28%, more than double the next largest country, Argentina (11.2%). In line with the forecasts of organizations like the UN ECLAC, the report ranks Venezuela as the only major Latin American country that ended 2010 in recession (GDP -1.9%) compared to growth of 6% on average in the region .
For this year, with consolidated economic recovery, the study said, Venezuela will grow by 1.4% compared to an average of 4.3% in Latin America. "The economic problem is the result of Venezuela's political crisis," said Jonah Fernandez, director of Research Department of Solchaga Recio & Associates.
"During the decade of Hugo Chavez has depressed domestic private investment and have gotten into a sort of Dutch disease in oil monoculture, a sector that" since it was nationalized and has become an instrument of government " adds. Besides, Fernandez explained that the Government of Hugo Chávez has maintained the currency appreciated, so "there is a substitution of domestic production by imports." The economy is sustained by high oil prices, says the expert, although governance has brought down the production and the lifeguard may not last long.
"I've spent years to amaze me every time I hold one more year," said Fernandez, who sees Venezuela in "a critical situation." Politically, the report concludes that "threatens to undermine democratic regression irreversibly the rule of law." The 2011 Latin American Perspectives study presents another side of the coin to look at Peru, which gives a growth of 8.7% in 2010, the highest of the major Latin American countries, and forecast to continue to lead this year with a 6.3%.
Exports to China are at the heart of the explanation of off Peru. Unlike Venezuela, the only study attributes these figures to political causes. In fact, as data provides reassurance that all candidates for the April elections "there is some convergence and sustained commitment" to economic matters.
However, the next government should strive to "fight poverty, inequality, corruption and advance the institutional strength," says the report. "It would be important to enhance the style Lula," says Fernandez, as figures of poverty in Peru do not come down "as expected" with such growth figures.
"If it brings more people into the growth process has a limit."
- Hearing set in Venezuela ex-president burial case (18/02/2011)
- stopover, night at the terminal - Cariaco, Venezuela (06/02/2011)
- stopover, another night at a bus terminal - Maturín, Venezuela (06/02/2011)
- Judge again suggests temporary burial for ex-pres (18/02/2011)
- Venezuela: US should mind own business on protests (18/02/2011)
No comments:
Post a Comment