Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Tripoli, Tunis, Cairo. What is behind the insurgency (and what it's worth)

"As Tripoli Tunis. Tripoli such as Cairo, "the demonstrators shouted last night that the deal with the streets of the Libyan capital. "Tripoli is not Tunis or Cairo," he said last night on TV the second son of Colonel Gaddafi, Saif-al-Islam, in a desperate attempt to regain control of the situation. They are right, after all, both.

The rebellion is like the Libyan and Tunisian and Egyptian - ideal for thrust and political objectives - but very different is the context in which it takes shape and develops. Similar to the three "revolutions" is the desire to get rid of a dictator in power for too long attached. Gaddafi led the coup in Libya since 1969.

Hosni Mubarak has ruled Egypt for thirty years, Ben Ali has ruled Tunisia for twenty-three. Similar is the rage at the corruption of ruling elites who seek to replicate themselves and maintain the privileges in the family. If the sons of Mubarak and Gaddafi were ready to succeed their fathers, Ben Ali had in his young wife Leila the most likely heir.

Similar is the use of revolutionary insurgents have made social networks. Only yesterday, Sunday, young Libyans were using Twitter and Facebook to communicate with their peers and Egypt to get food and medicine to the eastern border. Similar is, finally, the generation of three revolts (and at the bottom of all the riots we are seeing these days).

The average age in Egypt is 24 years, 29 in Tunisia. In Libya, 50% of the population is under 15 years. The riots in the Middle East are so massive movements of young people who want change, freedom, opportunity, hitherto denied (and who want, above all, take the place of their fathers and grandfathers).

It is different from the historical context and national protests that have taken shape. Tunisia and Egypt have an ethnic character, and a national culture, more homogeneous, defined with respect to Libya. Without a real national glue - if not the brutal Italian colonialism - the Libyans still tend to identify themselves as members of a tribe or clan, rather than citizens of any state.

The same Colonel Gaddafi has ruled through a Revolutionary Command Council to 12 members and a complex network of tribal alliances and rivalries held together by the charisma of the head and especially on oil revenues. This fragmented and tribal structure is also reflected in the composition of the army, which lacks the power and authority of their Tunisian counterparts and especially Egypt.

In Libya were the Committees of the People and the police to exert a unifying role. But neither of the two entities, too tied to the regime, can manage the transition. Hence all the risks facing the Libyan, and fears for the future of civil conflagration. This vagueness is what has so far fed the ambiguities of Italy.

There was in fact only the "Do Not Disturb Gaddafi" Silvio Berlusconi, but the proposal launched yesterday in an interview with Sole24Ore Massimo D'Alema, who asked to manage the transition to democracy at the same colonel. Statements and proposals far from reality, revealing the Italian interest in the fate of the 'friend' Gaddafi.

Italy is linked to Tripoli by a dense network of political and economic ties. In August 2008, Berlusconi and Gaddafi to Benghasi signed a cooperation agreement whereby, in exchange for economic compensation for the disaster of colonial occupation, Libya has pledged to block the flow of migrants from North Africa to the Italian coast.

Italy is also Libya's largest trading partner. Rome in 2010 exported goods to Libya to € 2.38 billion, and imported 10.6 billion (of which 7.1 billion consisting of crude oil). The list of Italian companies that have invested in Libya, or Libyan entities that have in their ownership, it is very long.

Eni, which has long hesitated before announcing a partial return of its workers, is the first international operator in Libya, Libya produced 244 000 barrels per Gorno (13% of the total production of the group). Finmeccanica, Saipem, Astaldi Impregilo, have signed or are about to sign lucrative contracts in the infrastructure, building and military supplies.

The 7.5% stake in Unicredit is owned by Libya. And the Libyan Arab Foreign Investiment Company (Lafico) has a 2% share in Fiat. We therefore include the concerns and fears Italian, expressed today at the meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, Franco Frattini, who desperately tried to avoid a conviction of the Libyan regime is too harsh.

"No imposition of external models in Libya," said Frattini, for once a proponent of cultural relativism in this case, defending a despotic and illiberal regime.

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