CAIRO - The protest is struggling to become a popular revolution. But the government, backed by the army, is struggling to turn to cover it up. Effort to reduce it to a tame reform of the regime. Twelve days after the demonstration on January 25 it is clear that Egypt is not like before, it is still early to Egypt groped a portrait of tomorrow.
Since I used it, for the first time in the chronicles of Egypt, the word revolution, it is natural to venture a comparison with the first revolutionary Paris, where the monarchy and the revolution still lived together, and the king and his wife Marie Antoinette did not know they would have lost their heads.
Cairo in 2011 there are no Executioner or axes, and therefore are not at stake the lives of Saddam and relatives, but the future is equally unclear. Unpredictable. Shows that it is uncertain, and in many respects opaque, the situation that, on the one hand, popular opposition prepares a draft democratic constitution, while the other, the military custodians of royal power, sought in the framework rejected the Constitution, for archiving.
Even happen that you recall Parliament, which is also illegal, exceeded the popular opposition. Coexistence that prevails at the time leaves everything unresolved. The Tahrir square, concrete symbol of the revolt, occupied by thousands of diehards, it offers an image revealing. Soldiers surround it, ensuring that trying to evacuate by force, but at the same time control it, and reduce the movement to a single passage (entry and exit), which is accessed by showing the documents.
The point of conflict is still the position of Hosni Mubarak. Focus on him all the ambiguities. Had spread the news that Saddam had resigned from the chairmanship of his party, as did his son Gamal. The abandonment of the party had appeared a decisive first step towards more waivers, though the fact was not considered significant by the opposition.
In fact, Saddam has also denied the report, namely that he had deprived of one of its most visible means of power for a time, widely denounced as a business center and malaffari the popular movement. The vice president, Omar Suleiman, and the higher ranks of the army are working to find a solution that Mubarak bare all the benefits while leaving the presidential office.
But Mubarak resists. Do not want to become a puppet dictator. To make it clear that he remains at his post, yesterday summoned the Ministers of Petroleum and Finance to discuss the serious situation in the country, following the loss of more than three billion dollars in just one week of crisis.
And he repeated that he would retire to private life but fears that its absence causes a serious political vacuum. Then chaos. It was not a man resigned. The man is tough. It is a gray character but does not lack courage. They remember the many attacks it has suffered. Particularly in Addis Ababa, when the arrival of armed men attacked on the road that brought him to town, did the driver turn around, reached by the plane which had just landed, and returned to Cairo.
It was an excellent pilot. Now it is an old general who does not surrender. Suleiman and generals, particularly the feld Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, Minister of Defense, and Shafiq Ahmed, retired general and prime minister, would have imagined way out is not too unpleasant, not too painful for Mubarak.
One was bathing. The dictator would be able to withdraw in the summer residence of Sharm el Sheikh on the Red Sea. Its remoteness from the capital might have appeased Tahrir Square. Could appear as a stage prior to definitive in September. A second scenario was of a medical nature. The Rais could go to Germany for one of the regular check-ups that you submit to control his illness.
But constitutional impediments were not discovered. Dislodged from the presidential palace would not be possible, because the Constitution provides that any reforms must be implemented by the head of state. Furthermore, according to the Constitution, that popular opposition has already filed, but from which the generals do not differ too much in relation to the arrangements that have embodied for decades, in the case of an absence of the Chairman, or resigns, it is for the President of the Senate substitute.
And the vice president. Although 81, when Sadat was killed, to take his place was the vice president. That was just him, Hosni Mubarak. These procedural niceties contrast with the situation. It is increasingly clear that, with the approval of Washington, the real power is entrusted to the Vice President, Omar Suleiman, accompanied by Tantawi, Minister of Defense and Shafiq, the prime minister.
It is at this triumvirate that has the responsibility to initiate dialogue with the opposition, and to examine the reforms. In addition to Washington, Europe also has given its support to Suleiman, inviting him to a transition not too slow, but nevertheless leaving more time than that Washington seemed to concede.
The same Washington is now more than sleeves. It has less in a hurry to see from Hosni Mubarak. Provided of course it goes. Best if on September 1. The intention is clear: leave a decent room to maneuver to the leaders of the army, from which depend on the balance of the Middle East. Suleiman has long been a privileged partner of both the Americans and the Israelis.
It is reliable for both. What Americans and Europeans in subordinate, is to avoid requiring the use of force, to respect the opponents and in concert with them the necessary reforms. For example, the democratic change. The times given are less close to Hosni Mubarak. And it also accepted the principle that its starting to happen, as required by the Egyptian general, saving the forms.
The opposition continues, however, to demand the immediate departure of the rais. Not satisfied with the resignation as party leader. And he believes that the final departure of Mubarak is proved essential that the military must make to demonstrate their good faith. It is also needed to adapt to the requirements of Tahrir Square and one million, perhaps more, of all the demonstrators in cities across the country have marked "via Mubarak." And now waiting, ready to refill the streets if they do not get satisfaction.
So far, without a leader, the opposition groups of intellectuals now able to interpret the will of the people's movement. Representatives of civil society, including Nabil Fahmi, a former ambassador to the United States, and Ahmed Zewail, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, came together in the office of Amr Moussa, former Foreign Minister and current head of the Arab League.
Amr Moussa has already appeared in Tahrir Square, where he has not hidden its intention to participate in the future, free presidential race. Moussa is a very popular character. Much more of El Baradei, the Nobel Prize for Peace, who does not waste time, however, since in his home gather men of law committed to drawing up a draft democratic constitution.
What are now the representatives of the dealing, as it seems, with the generals, the journalist ignores it. He is however aware of the anxious concern for the death of Wael Ghonim days, one of the Internet activists who first gave the green light to the protest movement. Wael Ghonim was questioned by the Secret Service, which Omar Suleiman was until a few days ago, and for years, the person responsible. 
Since I used it, for the first time in the chronicles of Egypt, the word revolution, it is natural to venture a comparison with the first revolutionary Paris, where the monarchy and the revolution still lived together, and the king and his wife Marie Antoinette did not know they would have lost their heads.
Cairo in 2011 there are no Executioner or axes, and therefore are not at stake the lives of Saddam and relatives, but the future is equally unclear. Unpredictable. Shows that it is uncertain, and in many respects opaque, the situation that, on the one hand, popular opposition prepares a draft democratic constitution, while the other, the military custodians of royal power, sought in the framework rejected the Constitution, for archiving.
Even happen that you recall Parliament, which is also illegal, exceeded the popular opposition. Coexistence that prevails at the time leaves everything unresolved. The Tahrir square, concrete symbol of the revolt, occupied by thousands of diehards, it offers an image revealing. Soldiers surround it, ensuring that trying to evacuate by force, but at the same time control it, and reduce the movement to a single passage (entry and exit), which is accessed by showing the documents.
The point of conflict is still the position of Hosni Mubarak. Focus on him all the ambiguities. Had spread the news that Saddam had resigned from the chairmanship of his party, as did his son Gamal. The abandonment of the party had appeared a decisive first step towards more waivers, though the fact was not considered significant by the opposition.
In fact, Saddam has also denied the report, namely that he had deprived of one of its most visible means of power for a time, widely denounced as a business center and malaffari the popular movement. The vice president, Omar Suleiman, and the higher ranks of the army are working to find a solution that Mubarak bare all the benefits while leaving the presidential office.
But Mubarak resists. Do not want to become a puppet dictator. To make it clear that he remains at his post, yesterday summoned the Ministers of Petroleum and Finance to discuss the serious situation in the country, following the loss of more than three billion dollars in just one week of crisis.
And he repeated that he would retire to private life but fears that its absence causes a serious political vacuum. Then chaos. It was not a man resigned. The man is tough. It is a gray character but does not lack courage. They remember the many attacks it has suffered. Particularly in Addis Ababa, when the arrival of armed men attacked on the road that brought him to town, did the driver turn around, reached by the plane which had just landed, and returned to Cairo.
It was an excellent pilot. Now it is an old general who does not surrender. Suleiman and generals, particularly the feld Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, Minister of Defense, and Shafiq Ahmed, retired general and prime minister, would have imagined way out is not too unpleasant, not too painful for Mubarak.
One was bathing. The dictator would be able to withdraw in the summer residence of Sharm el Sheikh on the Red Sea. Its remoteness from the capital might have appeased Tahrir Square. Could appear as a stage prior to definitive in September. A second scenario was of a medical nature. The Rais could go to Germany for one of the regular check-ups that you submit to control his illness.
But constitutional impediments were not discovered. Dislodged from the presidential palace would not be possible, because the Constitution provides that any reforms must be implemented by the head of state. Furthermore, according to the Constitution, that popular opposition has already filed, but from which the generals do not differ too much in relation to the arrangements that have embodied for decades, in the case of an absence of the Chairman, or resigns, it is for the President of the Senate substitute.
And the vice president. Although 81, when Sadat was killed, to take his place was the vice president. That was just him, Hosni Mubarak. These procedural niceties contrast with the situation. It is increasingly clear that, with the approval of Washington, the real power is entrusted to the Vice President, Omar Suleiman, accompanied by Tantawi, Minister of Defense and Shafiq, the prime minister.
It is at this triumvirate that has the responsibility to initiate dialogue with the opposition, and to examine the reforms. In addition to Washington, Europe also has given its support to Suleiman, inviting him to a transition not too slow, but nevertheless leaving more time than that Washington seemed to concede.
The same Washington is now more than sleeves. It has less in a hurry to see from Hosni Mubarak. Provided of course it goes. Best if on September 1. The intention is clear: leave a decent room to maneuver to the leaders of the army, from which depend on the balance of the Middle East. Suleiman has long been a privileged partner of both the Americans and the Israelis.
It is reliable for both. What Americans and Europeans in subordinate, is to avoid requiring the use of force, to respect the opponents and in concert with them the necessary reforms. For example, the democratic change. The times given are less close to Hosni Mubarak. And it also accepted the principle that its starting to happen, as required by the Egyptian general, saving the forms.
The opposition continues, however, to demand the immediate departure of the rais. Not satisfied with the resignation as party leader. And he believes that the final departure of Mubarak is proved essential that the military must make to demonstrate their good faith. It is also needed to adapt to the requirements of Tahrir Square and one million, perhaps more, of all the demonstrators in cities across the country have marked "via Mubarak." And now waiting, ready to refill the streets if they do not get satisfaction.
So far, without a leader, the opposition groups of intellectuals now able to interpret the will of the people's movement. Representatives of civil society, including Nabil Fahmi, a former ambassador to the United States, and Ahmed Zewail, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, came together in the office of Amr Moussa, former Foreign Minister and current head of the Arab League.
Amr Moussa has already appeared in Tahrir Square, where he has not hidden its intention to participate in the future, free presidential race. Moussa is a very popular character. Much more of El Baradei, the Nobel Prize for Peace, who does not waste time, however, since in his home gather men of law committed to drawing up a draft democratic constitution.
What are now the representatives of the dealing, as it seems, with the generals, the journalist ignores it. He is however aware of the anxious concern for the death of Wael Ghonim days, one of the Internet activists who first gave the green light to the protest movement. Wael Ghonim was questioned by the Secret Service, which Omar Suleiman was until a few days ago, and for years, the person responsible.
- Locals in Sharm-el-Sheikh convinced Mubarak is holed up there (29/01/2011)
- The Egyptian crisis: another day, another two US policies (06/02/2011)
- Mubarak family fortune estimated at 40 billion euros (06/02/2011)
- Egypt's Constitutional Dilemma (05/02/2011)
- Mubarak May Be Forced to End Days in Exile (04/02/2011)
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