Laurence Pope, Arabist, a retired diplomat and former political adviser to the "Central Command U.S. Army, was chief advisor to the U.S. embassy in Tripoli from 1974 to 1976. Washington is in a situation where there are only bad options and worse others. Libya is a country where it is very difficult to operate, mainly because ...
it's not really a country but a union of three provinces, carried out in 1950-1951. Colonel Gaddafi has continued to rule over Libya playing its divisions. There are heavily promoted regionalism, tribalism, and prevented the development of national institutions. It is no coincidence that today Cyrenaica is in the hands of the rebels - but not Tripoli.
In the short term, Washington can not do much, especially while there are still American citizens there. But the key is to freeze the assets collectively international regime by a UN resolution. I think we can get approval from Beijing and Moscow. Similarly, one could declare an air embargo on Libya.
The problem is that the impact of sanctions, even if effective, would take time, and we may find themselves quickly in an emergency. I would be very hostile. I am also very surprised that anyone at the State Department is now considering such an armed intervention in any form. Of course, the Pentagon has plans to counter any eventuality.
But too many things could go wrong if an armed attack against the regime. Diplomatically, Washington should push to Rome take the lead, but with Berlusconi will be very complicated, as it is unreliable. Above all, a confrontation with the West would make the regime a legitimacy it has lost inside Libya and, moreover, would weaken the camp of Democrats and advocates of change in the Arab world.
Actually, I'm not pessimistic. Gaddafi studying for years. He always had an element of inconsistency, but he had an undeniable charisma. I saw his last speech was that of a man who became totally inconsistent and no will, a mad tyrant, perhaps under the influence of drugs. I think those who are still with him in his "Hitler's bunker" will not all be the last to go down with him.
Here is the best chance for both the Libyans and for Westerners. The probabilities are that the Libyans managed to get rid of their despot fast enough. But what does a country without a national backbone, or sense of common destiny? Saif al-Islam, son of Muammar Gaddafi, has pointed the threat of civil war.
However, threatening the country, an explosion between hostile regions. The risk is medium term, not short term. Libya has no elites like Iraq or Egypt. The risk is that a new Somalia emerge on the shores of the Mediterranean. Interview by Sylvain Cypel (New York) 
it's not really a country but a union of three provinces, carried out in 1950-1951. Colonel Gaddafi has continued to rule over Libya playing its divisions. There are heavily promoted regionalism, tribalism, and prevented the development of national institutions. It is no coincidence that today Cyrenaica is in the hands of the rebels - but not Tripoli.
In the short term, Washington can not do much, especially while there are still American citizens there. But the key is to freeze the assets collectively international regime by a UN resolution. I think we can get approval from Beijing and Moscow. Similarly, one could declare an air embargo on Libya.
The problem is that the impact of sanctions, even if effective, would take time, and we may find themselves quickly in an emergency. I would be very hostile. I am also very surprised that anyone at the State Department is now considering such an armed intervention in any form. Of course, the Pentagon has plans to counter any eventuality.
But too many things could go wrong if an armed attack against the regime. Diplomatically, Washington should push to Rome take the lead, but with Berlusconi will be very complicated, as it is unreliable. Above all, a confrontation with the West would make the regime a legitimacy it has lost inside Libya and, moreover, would weaken the camp of Democrats and advocates of change in the Arab world.
Actually, I'm not pessimistic. Gaddafi studying for years. He always had an element of inconsistency, but he had an undeniable charisma. I saw his last speech was that of a man who became totally inconsistent and no will, a mad tyrant, perhaps under the influence of drugs. I think those who are still with him in his "Hitler's bunker" will not all be the last to go down with him.
Here is the best chance for both the Libyans and for Westerners. The probabilities are that the Libyans managed to get rid of their despot fast enough. But what does a country without a national backbone, or sense of common destiny? Saif al-Islam, son of Muammar Gaddafi, has pointed the threat of civil war.
However, threatening the country, an explosion between hostile regions. The risk is medium term, not short term. Libya has no elites like Iraq or Egypt. The risk is that a new Somalia emerge on the shores of the Mediterranean. Interview by Sylvain Cypel (New York)
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