With 11 February 2011 have been shaken at once certainties about the Middle East. If the "Pharaoh" can be overthrown, can fall at any other autocrat. Husni Mubarak was overthrown less rather than defeated. His forced resignation will have consequences: in Egypt - and throughout the Middle East.
Egypt is the largest and most important Arab country, Mubarak was until two weeks ago as one of the safest in the saddle seated ruler of the region - not least because he has supported for decades by the West. Which rulers between Atlas Mountains and the Hijaz is now still sleeping? Mubarak has the power of waiver in its most immediate consequences of course Egypt.
According to Vice-President, Omar Suleiman, Mubarak has handed over power to the governing body of the army, not to Suleiman, which would have been under the Constitution, the logical step. It is not even clear that this power transfer is formally legitimate. But that is in revolutions: the rules are suspended.
Now, power lies with the army, after all, enjoys the confidence of the majority of the population, and the opposition - in contrast to Suleiman. It is possible that this decision will be Mubarak's designed it in retrospect as size. For only in that the power seems to have not landed at Suleiman, a break with the system is at all possible.
And the protesters have finally demanded. Despot shrink to normal levels, the Army can now take on the role of a Regent and provide up to elections that is calm and order. It will be important that the opposition - will be involved - in all its diversity. Whether the army leadership has enough political sense, is uncertain.
But the opposition, which has only just got rid of Mubarak is, can not be excluded, and push for the stage. It has triggered the development and she wants a say, the army has repeatedly stressed that it considers the demands of the demonstrators to understand. Quite possible, therefore, that there is a fruitful dialogue.
It could lead to a kind of official or unofficial government of national unity. For the Muslim Brotherhood, one must find a role. You have mitprotestiert in the second row and represented a significant minority in Egypt. That they could take power, as some suspect in the West is inconceivable VRST.
All others must be facing speedy, free and fair elections. Egypt's political weight of the world is due not least the fact that it is the most important peace partner Israel. In Tel Aviv and Washington's concerns are very high that a new government could turn back this wheel. But it suggests nothing currently out.
Even the Muslim Brotherhood have expressed a willingness to respect international obligations, none of the major opposition groups, Israel has made peace on the subject. Should such developments emerge, notably the United States will intervene with all its diplomatic weight. Presumably this would be enough.
A landmark year of 1979? The impact on the region will be enormous. With the withdrawal of Mubarak, the autocrats of the Middle East shrink to size. Not all of them are comparable with each other - but the concerns and needs of their populations. From now on, the Egyptians will be an example to all other groups in the Middle East who want reform or revolt.
And more than that, you'll see in today's date to show that even the most seemingly stable government can be defeated by mass protests. It is possible that the Middle East is facing a turbulent year, comparable to the landmark year of 1979, in which the Shah was overthrown in Iran, what impact did the rise of Islamist ideology.
But what is the signal coming from Cairo in 2011? For what it is unifying idea? Surely not for a defined ideology. Even more of a desire for democracy. But perhaps even more for recovering participation, the refusal to the simple being governed, as do the citizens of the Middle East almost every day: as passive subjects hardly anyone responsible rulers or cliques.
Cairo is a beacon for the self-determination. Governments can block like Facebook - but Facebook can bring this government to crumble. Of course, the case of Mubarak's opposition to Morocco to Yemen is a boost. There will be mass demonstrations - especially where rulers are in power that are legitimated weak kleptocracies have introduced and reign with the help of brutal security services.
Perhaps with renewed vigor in Iran. Serious conflicts at all levels are likely. But there is hope that another signal was sent from Cairo: That the change of the fracture, the revolution can be brought about peacefully. It is such an unexpected and happy coincidence that the Egyptians, the Tunisians as before them, apart from violence.
In their success at the same time a powerful problem for the militant Islamists in the region covered, that will unfold its effectiveness as well. Their bloody overthrow discredited fantasies. At a stroke, a series of apparent certainties of the region are set aside - or at least been demolished.
The Middle East can be changed - and on their own, there is no need regime change from outside, on the contrary. It was not Iraq, the other Arabs, inspired, it was Tunisia. With Egypt now is in addition a much more powerful, second example. The West will go in and check its stability must fetish.
He will have to ask themselves whether there is a much wirkmächtigere Arab civil society, than previously believed. Little is achieved. Of course, the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt are now historical. But the work begins - to work on a freer, more open, more democratic Middle East that is still stable.
Or maybe because of it.
Egypt is the largest and most important Arab country, Mubarak was until two weeks ago as one of the safest in the saddle seated ruler of the region - not least because he has supported for decades by the West. Which rulers between Atlas Mountains and the Hijaz is now still sleeping? Mubarak has the power of waiver in its most immediate consequences of course Egypt.
According to Vice-President, Omar Suleiman, Mubarak has handed over power to the governing body of the army, not to Suleiman, which would have been under the Constitution, the logical step. It is not even clear that this power transfer is formally legitimate. But that is in revolutions: the rules are suspended.
Now, power lies with the army, after all, enjoys the confidence of the majority of the population, and the opposition - in contrast to Suleiman. It is possible that this decision will be Mubarak's designed it in retrospect as size. For only in that the power seems to have not landed at Suleiman, a break with the system is at all possible.
And the protesters have finally demanded. Despot shrink to normal levels, the Army can now take on the role of a Regent and provide up to elections that is calm and order. It will be important that the opposition - will be involved - in all its diversity. Whether the army leadership has enough political sense, is uncertain.
But the opposition, which has only just got rid of Mubarak is, can not be excluded, and push for the stage. It has triggered the development and she wants a say, the army has repeatedly stressed that it considers the demands of the demonstrators to understand. Quite possible, therefore, that there is a fruitful dialogue.
It could lead to a kind of official or unofficial government of national unity. For the Muslim Brotherhood, one must find a role. You have mitprotestiert in the second row and represented a significant minority in Egypt. That they could take power, as some suspect in the West is inconceivable VRST.
All others must be facing speedy, free and fair elections. Egypt's political weight of the world is due not least the fact that it is the most important peace partner Israel. In Tel Aviv and Washington's concerns are very high that a new government could turn back this wheel. But it suggests nothing currently out.
Even the Muslim Brotherhood have expressed a willingness to respect international obligations, none of the major opposition groups, Israel has made peace on the subject. Should such developments emerge, notably the United States will intervene with all its diplomatic weight. Presumably this would be enough.
A landmark year of 1979? The impact on the region will be enormous. With the withdrawal of Mubarak, the autocrats of the Middle East shrink to size. Not all of them are comparable with each other - but the concerns and needs of their populations. From now on, the Egyptians will be an example to all other groups in the Middle East who want reform or revolt.
And more than that, you'll see in today's date to show that even the most seemingly stable government can be defeated by mass protests. It is possible that the Middle East is facing a turbulent year, comparable to the landmark year of 1979, in which the Shah was overthrown in Iran, what impact did the rise of Islamist ideology.
But what is the signal coming from Cairo in 2011? For what it is unifying idea? Surely not for a defined ideology. Even more of a desire for democracy. But perhaps even more for recovering participation, the refusal to the simple being governed, as do the citizens of the Middle East almost every day: as passive subjects hardly anyone responsible rulers or cliques.
Cairo is a beacon for the self-determination. Governments can block like Facebook - but Facebook can bring this government to crumble. Of course, the case of Mubarak's opposition to Morocco to Yemen is a boost. There will be mass demonstrations - especially where rulers are in power that are legitimated weak kleptocracies have introduced and reign with the help of brutal security services.
Perhaps with renewed vigor in Iran. Serious conflicts at all levels are likely. But there is hope that another signal was sent from Cairo: That the change of the fracture, the revolution can be brought about peacefully. It is such an unexpected and happy coincidence that the Egyptians, the Tunisians as before them, apart from violence.
In their success at the same time a powerful problem for the militant Islamists in the region covered, that will unfold its effectiveness as well. Their bloody overthrow discredited fantasies. At a stroke, a series of apparent certainties of the region are set aside - or at least been demolished.
The Middle East can be changed - and on their own, there is no need regime change from outside, on the contrary. It was not Iraq, the other Arabs, inspired, it was Tunisia. With Egypt now is in addition a much more powerful, second example. The West will go in and check its stability must fetish.
He will have to ask themselves whether there is a much wirkmächtigere Arab civil society, than previously believed. Little is achieved. Of course, the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt are now historical. But the work begins - to work on a freer, more open, more democratic Middle East that is still stable.
Or maybe because of it.
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