The rating agency Moody's downgraded the rating of Tunisia to Baa2 to Baa3, Wednesday, January 18, to signify an increased risk due to "unexpected change of regime." His sisters Standard & Poors and Fitch have warned they may well do the same. Thence to imagine that Tunisia may know the fate of Greece, that is to say, suffer from a distrust of investors panicked by the degradation of the note leading to a near-bankruptcy, there has only a step which should not be crossed.Tunisia does not suffer from the ills of Greece. She has no foreign debt problem: when Athens sees inflate it to about 120% of its gross domestic product (GDP) Tunis can boast of not to exceed 47%. With estimated reserves of 10 billion dollars by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it will have no trouble refinancing in April and in September a debt of $ 775 million maturing, as Moody's recognizes itself.
Tunisia was also no lack of competitiveness such as Greece where you can enjoy income abnormally high due to indexing, double income, annuities protected and tax evasion of all kinds. Tunisian salaries are eight times lower than what is practiced in Europe for unskilled labor and five times for managerial positions.
Specialized in outsourcing textiles, food processing, mechanical, Tunisia did not experience the recession, which is essential for European companies seeking cost savings and outsourcing. For example, scrapping practiced in France and Germany have completed the backlog of Tunisian companies producing components and spare parts for automobiles.
This explains why growth remains tonic, up 6.3% in 2007, +4.5% in 2008, +3.1% and +3.8% in 2009 and in 2010 the deficit in its trade balance is no problem, the Central Bank engaged in a devaluation of the dinar imperceptible to preserve competitiveness could be eroded by inflation likely to grow 5% this year.
Whether to seek evidence of widespread confidence in the Tunisian economy, the $ 3 billion of foreign investment will suffice, since this amount is the same as in Algeria, though the country is four times more populous and has the resources of oil Eldorado. The wound of Tunisia, the unemployment of graduates, which is valued at more than 30%.
This is due to the economic suffocation provoked by predation close to former President Ben Ali. Indeed, the corruption that has enriched grew dramatically through the installation of locks or "tolls" they have installed on economic institutions - customs, urban planning, infrastructure, administrative permissions, etc..
- Which have crippled business. Similarly, the greed of "the family" has created a state of uncertainty. Since a simple phone call could force them to sell cheaply their business, many owners have chosen not to provoke any lust by simply vegetate like many Tunisian SMEs. An average growth rate of 5% - when the World Bank estimates that it could be 8% - chilly patrons, under-investment real family businesses managed with very limited resources and opacity have combined to prevent tens of thousands of graduates from middle class to find a job.
In the short term, Moody's is right: the current political instability is a risk for investors. However, medium term, the political demise of parasites should raise a mortgage and allow agencies to revise upward the score of Tunisia. Alain Faujas
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