Australia's third largest city, Brisbane, is now besieged by water. Every day the Australians have the damage caused by floods that have twelve dead and dozens missing since Monday. But the damage was also measured in dollars. Flooding could indeed begin the gross domestic product of 10 billion U.S. dollars (7.7 billion euros).Economists say the effects on the economy could be even more devastating than Hurricane Katrina, which struck the U.S. in 2005. The impact could be felt by early 2011, growth could be reduced by one percentage point, or about 13 billion Australian dollars (9.9 billion euros), according to Stephen Walters, chief economist at the bank JP Morgan Investment.
"GDP expected to show a dip in the short term, or at least significantly slowed growth, but not necessarily negative," said the economist, before recovering in the second half of 2011 and 2012 ", thanks to Asian demand content First and reconstruction of homes, offices and infrastructure.
In Australia, the annual growth stands at 2.7%. For John Rolfe, an economist at the University of Queensland, forecasts are darker: floods will affect mainly exports of coal and raw materials and their impact will be felt for many years. "In the longer term, the economy will suffer because of the lasting disruption in production, and additional expenses, public and private, to rehabilitate the infrastructure, he believes.
He however expect a minimal revision of growth, between 0.1 and 0.3 percentage point for 2011. The impact of floods on Queensland, a major tourist destination and place of production to half of coking coal in the world, could be higher than Hurricane Katrina has had on the U.S. economy, relatively speaking, Judge John Rolfe.
U.S. officials believed in 2005 that Katrina and Rita caused damage to buildings for about 70 to 130 billion dollars and have a pronounced effect, but short on the economy. Queensland him, will be directly affected in its two main sectors of acvity, mining and tourism. The Tourist Board of Queensland had estimated losses sector at 100 million Australian dollars, but this figure will be revised upwards now that Brisbane, the capital of the state is under water.
For the economist Warwick McKibbin, a board member of the Central Bank of Australia, the impact will not be reduced to the simple loss of exports: "It will be more important than people realize. It will be well above the mere cost of the damage. "Queensland Treasurer Andrew Fraser spoke of" billions [of dollars] in terms of impact on the budget.
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