Haunted by two civil wars (1955-1972, 1983-2005), the semi-autonomous South Sudan's decision on his future, Sunday, Jan. 9, in favor of a referendum on self-history. Cornerstone of the comprehensive peace agreement signed in Kenya in January 2005, the referendum would lead to a split of the country between the North, the Arab-Muslim, and South, mostly Christian and animist.That prospect does raise some questions. Overview of potential points of contention with Marc Lavergne, director of the geo-political and CEDEJ (Center for Economic Studies and documentation, legal and social, under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and French CNRS). A random citizen border with blurred boundaries of the fate of another thorny issue arises: that the status accorded to some 2.5 million southern Sudanese currently living in the North.
From this point of view the speech in Khartoum, especially by security officials, is more threatening. "In particular, they said that southern Sudanese would leave the North without taking anything with them, not even a pin, or they would become foreigners overnight, that is to say they would no access or health services or education system.
Of course, these comments are scaring the southern Sudanese living in the North. Indeed, we must know that many of them among the younger generations do not know the South and do not speak the language of their parents. These are mostly urban dwellers of big cities who speak Arabic, "analyzes Marc Lavergne.
However, this hard-line display is facing economic reality, the North is heavily dependent on workers in South Sudan ( domestic, personal factories and construction sites). An oil superabundant source of lust Region hit by a deep economic deprivation, with only about fifty miles of paved roads - an area of 590,000 km2, comparable to that of France - and a population of 90% with less than a dollar a day, the South Sudan paradoxically full of natural resources.
Its basement contains in particular an impressive amount of oil discovered in 1978, which represents about 80% of production the country (estimated at 500,000 barrels per day, for a total reserve of about 6 billion barrels). Despite promises from Khartoum, the South has never had the opportunity to exploit themselves the precious resource.
Indeed, the pipeline through which passes the black gold before being exported abroad, mainly to China, India and Malaysia, through the northern side to side, to Port Sudan, the Red Sea. What about the situation in case of partition of the country? "The South Sudanese are trapped because they have no alternative.
Even if one speaks of an alternative route towards Lamu, Kenya [ally of South Sudan], it is very unrealistic because of the prohibitive cost that would "advance Marc Lavergne. Another stumbling block: the distribution of revenues from the same oil. For now, nothing has filtered out of negotiations between Khartoum and Juba.
But the most likely hypothesis, according to Marc Lavergne, is that the South is required to pay royalties to the North to take the pipeline and there is a sharing in the shares of various companies and consortia. "Overall, this is going to compensate for the North, the shortfall related to the independence of the South," he predicted.
A national debt of Sudan embarrassing debt is currently around 36 billion dollars. Can you imagine that in case of division of the country, the South takes part in his office? Hard to tell, says Marc Lavergne, because "in Sudan, as in Egypt, where the army turns to source a large portion of oil revenues, the national budget is an illusion." Judging by the arguments developed by the South, which accuses the North have borrowed for the war and have deliberately kept in a state of underdevelopment advanced, it is hardly conceivable that he consents tomorrow more than today to a refund ...
Six years after the end of the second civil war, responsible for two million deaths and over four million displaced southern Sudanese trusts finally to a better future. Can he? On this point, Marc Lavergne is pessimistic: "In case of partition, the South Sudanese will quickly realize that the South Sudan does not exist.
They will fight and tear each other apart because they don ' have common enemy to mobilize them, that is to say the North. If a third civil war should break out, it will take place between southern Sudanese tribes. And the North has mastered the art of 'divide and rule ', will draw its game once more.
" To go further: "Sudan: Darfur & the failure of an African state (Richard Cockett, Yale University Press, July 2010, 320 pages). Aymeric Janier
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