Surprise and dismay dominate in Niamey, after the death of two French nationals kidnapped and killed by their captors. Although not claimed, this action is "absolutely" the mark of al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), according to Alain Juppe, the French defense minister, visiting Niger Monday, January 10.If this is not the first time that the Islamist hit this country, this action at the heart of the capital marks a new stage. "This is a sign that we can kidnap people in a capital Saharan Africa, which is worrisome because it occurred in a neighborhood with a strong expatriate presence of security forces" analysis Alain Antil, a researcher in charge Sub-Saharan Africa Program at the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI).
"The novelty is that in one week, two capitals in the region have been deemed safe the scene of two violent events." These two events do not seem to be on the same plane. According to Alain Antil, the attack against the Embassy of France in Bamako, Mali, Wednesday, January 5, relates to one of individual initiative (although its author claims to Al-Qaeda), contrary to the kidnapping Niger, which is directly due to the elements of AQIM.
"If so, he concludes, it means that the French are not safe anywhere." "This action reflects the determination and hard-line in the implementation of the logic of AQIM past six months," Mathieu Guidere analysis, business intelligence specialist at the University of Geneva. In everything that is considered by AQIM Land of Islam, "All the French are a target." It says it's firm stance adopted by France? By intervening militarily against the kidnappers, in cooperation with relevant countries, "France has chosen a new approach that had already been implemented with Michel Germaneau.
It sends a strong message," said Mathieu Guidere. In August 2010, Nicolas Sarkozy had indeed discussed a "major shift" in the strategy of France after the Franco-Mauritanian raid conducted in July to try to find the hostage kidnapped April 19, 2010 in Niger. Mathieu Guidere is a "very clear signal of a change strategy that will take place throughout the area." It considers that "France does not want to have the image of a government that negotiates with terrorism." "Certainly, the position of negotiating a contract for Camatte Stone", released in February 2010 in exchange for the release by Mali of four Islamist prisoners, but a new element has changed the situation: the involvement of bin Laden on October 27 2010, which directly challenged the French nation.
"If bin Laden speaks to the French people, it became an international target. For the jihadist base, we are like the United States. The U.S. knows that nothing can negotiate with Bin Laden, c ' is the same for France. Once we acquired the target position internationally, we are forced to take political action.
It has changed status, "Mathieu Guidere analysis. Military strategy does not preclude negotiations, grade Alain Antil, even if it is challenged by "the increasing demands of the kidnappers delusional: the release of prisoners Sahel, the amount of ransom, to Recently the demand for removal of a law.
" But "France and Spain have been much criticized for being lax because they have paid a lot, and also because France has lobbied on Mali to release prisoners in exchange for Pierre Camatte" . According to Alain Antil, it is in a "context of cure." "There is an emerging consensus on the need not to stay in the wait.
We will always negotiate, but as in the case of Niger, it will first issue to prevent the abduction succeed. "" The best position to be taken was to respond, "despite the tragic outcome of the removal Niamey, Niger says a senior official who requested anonymity. "These are casualties that we all regret but it was necessary, because if the terrorists were able to return to their base, they have continued to put those who live here in a situation stress.
Today, basically, we said we developed a device that worked, our response was quick and we have prevented the terrorists from achieving their goals. "Helena Salon
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